Glen Grant: The Ministry of Defense is in poor condition, Radev did not support NATO

Bulgaria has brave soldiers but sadly a totally broken system. The Bulgarian army has two brigades but it could not send a single brigade to war immediately.

I was surprised that Rumen Radev did not support NATO properly as the country needs and has accepted by treaty, but turned more towards Russia.

That told BGNES Lt Col Glen Grant.

Lt Col (Retd) Glen Grant, formerly British Army, works as a defense and reform expert in Ukraine for the Ukrainian Institute for the Future. He also currently works with the Ukrainian Parliament as a defense and security expert. Glen graduated from the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and the Joint Staff Defence College at the Royal Naval College Greenwich. During his 37 year military career, he commanded the UK Military Prison and an Artillery battery of 8 tracked guns. His key work in the last twenty years has been delivering reform and change for defense and security organisations in Europe. He has worked in the defense ministries or armed forces of fifteen European countries including Ukraine, Bulgaria and Poland.

BGNES: How do you assess the situation in the Black Sea?

Glen Grant: It is not clear now what the objective was for the massive deployment by Russia. It could have been to prepare for a serious invasion, but they then lost their nerve, or it may have been a dress rehearsal with the aim of learning lessons, or possibly just bullying. Something stopped them and we do not know what that was yet. What is clear is that it was more about strategic logistics and large-scale deployment than about exercising individual units. But the lack of an invasion should not make other NATO countries feel safe. If Russia had invaded there would have been fall out into other countries around the black sea. What Russia has done is take more firm control of the sea of Azov and push influence and power further out into the Black Sea. This affects the wellbeing and economy of Bulgaria, so it has serious security implications and must not be ignored.

BGNES: Is Russia ready to go to war?

Glen Grant: Clearly not as she did not attack as expected. But that does not mean that she will not come back again. The Russian staff are good at learning lessons, unlike many other countries in the region she threatens.

BGNES: Is NATO prepared to meet the Russian challenge?

Glen Grant: Only the USA individually is in the condition to fight Russia. Many other countries except UK and France would struggle to deploy more than 10-20% of their armed forces in battle condition. A lot of NATO countries have ships they cannot sail and planes they cannot fly because their budgets are disjointed and totally unbalanced. Most countries have far more forces than they can afford including both Romania and Bulgaria.

BGNES: Is Bulgaria ready to face the Russian threat?

Glen Grant: Not at all. It has brave soldiers but sadly a totally broken system. Sadly, there seems no appetite to improve or change to meet the threats of the real world

BGNES: In 2010-2011 you were in Bulgaria to consult Bulgarian defence reform efforts. How do you see the Bulgarian Army now? Is it ready to fulfil its missions?

Glen Grant: The Bulgarian army is always capable of meeting its missions because the missions are written to reflect what it CAN do not what it should be able to do. It has two brigades but it could not send a single brigade to war immediately, for example to the Baltic States. It cannot manage its own air policing properly. The ships do not spend enough time at sea.

BGNES: What should the Bulgarian defense leadership do in order to make Bulgaria a stronger NATO country?

Glen Grant: Focus upon what it can afford to do not what it would like to do. Bulgaria is a small country, and it must use money wisely. It needs to rethink the whole defence system based upon what things cost to buy and run. That means getting rid of everything that cannot be afforded. The MOD and senior staff are still living in the days of the glorious past and those days have gone forever. Emotion is a bad planner.

BGNES: Do you know Rumen Radev and how do you see his role as a President and Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces at this critical moment of rising Black Sea tensions due to the aggressive Russian actions?

Glen Grant: I know Rumen from my time working in the Bulgarian defence system when he was deputy commander of the Air Force. He is actually on my facebook friends. Like many of us that knew him I was surprised that he did not support NATO properly as the country needs and has accepted by treaty, but turned more towards Russia. It also seems from his actions that he has ambitions to be another authoritarian ruler not a democrat. If he does believe in NATO, then his actions to support Russian defence industry seem strange.

BGNES: For a year and a half Bulgaria expelled eight Russian diplomats for espionage and arrested six Bulgarians on allegations for spying for Russia. Five of them were defense officials. How do you assess these results? Are Bulgarian efforts to counter Russian espionage systematic and consistent enough? What is your assessment regarding the overall Bulgarian record in dealing with the Russian subversion activities, including espionage as the tip of the iceberg?

Glen Grant: It was clear whilst working in the system that there were several people working against the country and trying to delay every reform they could. Some of these remain inside the system and in high positions 10 years later. It is not clear if the reason for their actions was cultural and a simple fear of change, corruption and not wanting to disturb money flows, or Russian influence. But the lack of reform, or even an attempt to reform over such a prolonged period should indicate clearly to government that there is a serious problem with the defence and security system. It is firmly stuck in 1970 and unless dramatic steps are taken will continue to fall further behind each year. Big purchases are not the answer. /BGNES

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